Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

[VladG2]

The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25

Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short !

"Sell in May and go away!"

[Jerry]

The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25

Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short !

"Sell in May and go away!"

Только сегодня читал, что эта стратегия уже давно не работает

Premature to Sell in May
Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that May registers a stock market advance 57% of the time, while the average movement is a tiny decline of 0.06%, as reported in their Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets dated April 18. Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%, Merrill indicates. Moreover, they write that a weak May normally heralds a "more robust" June-August period. If there is any time to sell in summer, it normally would be in July-August, Merrill adds.

Not Applicable This Year
Based on new research, the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern, also called the Halloween Indicator or the Halloween Strategy, actually only holds true in the third year of a U.S. presidential term, asserts Mark Hulbert in his MarketWatch column. In the other three years, there is no statistically significant pattern, he says. Accordingly, he advises his readers that "there's nothing to bet on this year."

Analyzing data from 1897 onwards, Hulbert finds that the "winter" period in the third year of a presidential term averages an 11% gain, while the "summer" averages a slight loss. In years one, two and four, "winters" are up about 3%, while "summers" gain about 2%. Hulbert is noted for analyzing the track records of investment newsletters through his Hulbert Financial Digest (published 1980-2016) and his Hulbert Rating

[Dweller]

Все ринулись продавать в Мае да так что рынок рванул вверх только 1 июня
Ну я сегодня продал, думаю опять просядет немножко, непонятно что там Трамп ещё учудит, ну и встреча с Кимом может сорваться тоже и тарифы по новой заиграют в заднице президента

[VladG2]

The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25

Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short !

"Sell in May and go away!"

Только сегодня читал, что эта стратегия уже давно не работает

Premature to Sell in May
Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that May registers a stock market advance 57% of the time, while the average movement is a tiny decline of 0.06%, as reported in their Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets dated April 18. Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%, Merrill indicates. Moreover, they write that a weak May normally heralds a "more robust" June-August period. If there is any time to sell in summer, it normally would be in July-August, Merrill adds.

Not Applicable This Year
Based on new research, the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern, also called the Halloween Indicator or the Halloween Strategy, actually only holds true in the third year of a U.S. presidential term, asserts Mark Hulbert in his MarketWatch column. In the other three years, there is no statistically significant pattern, he says. Accordingly, he advises his readers that "there's nothing to bet on this year."

Analyzing data from 1897 onwards, Hulbert finds that the "winter" period in the third year of a presidential term averages an 11% gain, while the "summer" averages a slight loss. In years one, two and four, "winters" are up about 3%, while "summers" gain about 2%. Hulbert is noted for analyzing the track records of investment newsletters through his Hulbert Financial Digest (published 1980-2016) and his Hulbert Rating

Очевидно летом маркет слабый, люди уходят в отпуска. Для трейдеров закрыть рискованные позиции вполне имеет смысл, что бы не переживать.

[worldCitizen]

Год спустя...

Expect a ‘minor correction’ of 5% before stocks march higher, famed bull says

Also supporting his thesis is that, after Feb 15, when 90% of S&P 500 components had surpassed their 50-day moving averages, the median stock in the index rose 5.1%, well above the historical norm. This level of market breadth is typically a contrarian indicator, signifying that stocks are overbought.

Finally, Dwyer argued that in the current earnings season — wherein 77% of the S&P 500 have beaten earnings estimates, while revenue growth is on pace to a “respectable 5%” — the fear of an earnings recession has evaporated, helping power the index’s 3.6% climb in April. “That leaves us with less skepticism ahead of a plethora of economic data that is likely to show further slowing.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expec ... o_homepage
Интересно будет посмотреть насколько предсказатели правы.
S&P 500
2,923.73: -22.10(-0.75%) Dow 30: 26,430.14 -162.77(-0.61%)
Nasdaq: 8,049.64

[liamkin]

Похихикал над постингом из Феда. Я в курсе что это за контора. Но сейчас все карты у Трампа. Про май и лето ничего не скажу. Но к выборам 2020 у Трампа только один курс по экономике (и стокам стало быть) - вверх. Иначе проиграет. Поэтому никакой торговой войны и лосс оф конфиденс не будет. Но стоки могут просесть, сезонно или еще из-за какого чиха. Кто ж их знает.

[worldCitizen]

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/LeBY1 ... -h400-e365

[metaller]

Sell in May and go away ...

[Dweller]

SP500 на прошлой неделе побил прежние рекорды ненамного, и народ волнуется
В целом знак хороший, поэтому думаю подергается немного (2-3 недели) и опять начнет ползти вверх потихоньку, думаю коррекция вряд ли случится в ближайшие месяцы

[rialtoma1]

я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?

[liamkin]

я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?

вот у Фоксконна акции уже обвалились (-17%) на фоне слабых продаж айФонов. Делайте что хотите. Джобс не вернется!

[worldCitizen]

я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?

Почему такое желание возникло сейчас когда начался даунтренд? Надо ждать. Ситуация очень неуверенная. я бы скорее прикупил some puts. Or, you may do put credit spread. If price falls below your short strike, you have a chance to get the stock cheaper.

[worldCitizen]

я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?

Почему такое желание возникло сейчас когда начался даунтренд? Надо ждать. Ситуация очень неуверенная. я бы скорее прикупил some puts. Or, you may do put credit spread. If price falls below your short strike, you have a chance to get the stock cheaper.

Написал, и думаю может быть мне самому такую позицию открыть..

[worldCitizen]

Кстати, на таких стоках как Apple and Microsoft you can open a put or call diagonal spread for some credit. Редкая возможность, налетай кому не лень.

[worldCitizen]

del