Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

[venumpro]

Well, good luck with this, you will really need it... In particularly, it is unlikely, that QQQ will go down below 136, since the support was not overcome last time.

Посмотрим, как оно будет на самом деле.

Продал еше несколько 140 calls в QQQ.

[worldCitizen]

So speaks Jim:

Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?

Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.

Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.

Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff. We’ve had financial problems in America -- let’s use America -- every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. This is the longest or second longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes -- you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now -- that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now. In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now, even the Chinese have debt and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times, since 2008. It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime, my lifetime too. Be worried.
/////////////////// https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets ... ar-BBCo6W4

[Frecken Bock]

Какой мрачный прогноз!

[venumpro]

Rogers is a clown. He is waiting for markets to crash since 2008.

[venumpro]

Here is my take on the market direction, if anyone cares.

Market is a super efficient vehicle of redistributing wealth from many to few. As a result, in order to be successful, you have to always be on the other side of the crowd.

Unquestionably, for the exception of professional traders, the entire world is long the market today. So in my eyes, the only possible way to play it, is to short all tech and highflying stocks.

[KotKot]

Here is my take on the market direction, if anyone cares.

Market is a super efficient vehicle of redistributing wealth from many to few. As a result, in order to be successful, you have to always be on the other side of the crowd.

Unquestionably, for the exception of professional traders, the entire world is long the market today. So in my eyes, the only possible way to play it, is to short all tech and highflying stocks.

Каждый день кто-то предвещает обвал рынка и говорит или подразумевает, что стадо баранов вот уже очень скоро дружно отсосет, а "smart money" преумножат свои огромные состояния.

Проблема в том, какому из этих ораклов верить и когда именно. В 2009? 2013? Когда выбрали Трампа? Сейчас? Через год?

A broken clock is right twice a day, так что рано или поздно один из таких ясновидящих окажется прав. Проблема в том, что мы не знаем когда именно.

Что касается меня, то стратегия следующая:

-Only low cost index funds.
-Only long term buy and hold.
-Diversified portfolio of stocks (US and Intl), bonds, REITS and cash
-Slowly shifting assets from equity to fixed income with a target of up to 30-40 percent of portfolio in bonds/cash.
-No selling stocks even if/when the market drops. You don't lose money unless you buy high and sell low.

[venumpro]

.......

I don't disagree with you. We are in different business with different goals. Your goal is to preserve capital. If you are consistent and use unmanaged and LOW cost products, you will be fine. You will end up with the returns that are 100-150 basis points over inflation. I don't see anything wrong with it.

I am a speculator. I don't want S&P returns and would consider it as a failure. So I have to do a lot of things on a daily basis to meet my goal.

I don't believe in market crash and don't want it. It's bad for business. I hope it never happens.

[NoMercy]

Has anyone used Marc Spitzniegel's idea on achieving "asymmetric returns" by buying OTM puts on a regular basic?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... d-equities

[Beretta]

Has anyone used Marc Spitzniegel's idea on achieving "asymmetric returns" by buying OTM puts on a regular basic?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... d-equities

buying puts does not work.

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

[venumpro]

Has anyone used Marc Spitzniegel's idea on achieving "asymmetric returns" by buying OTM puts on a regular basic?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... d-equities

buying puts does not work.

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

It works, if you know how to time market. I never buy them because I suck at figuring out timing. For this reason, I am always short Once day I will be right

[Beretta]

It works, if you know how to time market.

my point exactly. знал бы прикуп - жил бы в Сочи (с)

[NoMercy]

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

That's exactly the idea: there WILL BE market crash (sooner or later). You just don't know WNEN. It works the same way as house/car insurance....And many-many people have their cars and houses insured...

[NoMercy]

For this reason, I am always short Once day I will be right

How do you stay always short? I dont think that you're shorting QQQ for years and just keep and keep selling )

What I dont get in Spitzniegel's approach is the case when the market is not rapidly plunging (and IV soars) but sinking for months and years. IV wouldn't soar and OTM puts expire worthless

[Beretta]

How do you stay always short? I dont think that you're shorting QQQ for years and just keep and keep selling )

да легко. I always have short delta on hand or long metals/bonds AND I trade around it. I am not always right, but I am always reducing cost bases.

What I dont get in Spitzniegel's approach is the case when the market is not rapidly plunging (and IV soars) but sinking for months and years. IV wouldn't soar and OTM puts expire worthless

люди поумнее нас посчитали, что just buying puts does not work - you run out of money before you get your payout. If you are willing to pay like you paying your insurance bill - this is different story.. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. But are you sure your payout will be large enough to cover your spending? it is way better selling SPY 5 delta put every month..

[Beretta]

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

That's exactly the idea: there WILL BE market crash (sooner or later). You just don't know WNEN. It works the same way as house/car insurance....And many-many people have their cars and houses insured...

insurance business is a really good business to be in