Etcher wrote:Компас wrote:
Ну закрома ведь не бесконечные? И вряд ли ЕС захочет продолжать лезть в закрома, наблюдая, как греки продолжают радоваться социализму за чужой счет.
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Поживём-увидим . Политическое решение в дирекции брюссельского совхоза о помощи грекам уже принято.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 71,00.html
Политическое решение принято скинуть проблемы греков на IMF. По вашей же ссылке :
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The central point: Should Greece slide to the brink of bankruptcy in the coming months, the International Monetary Fund is to be part of the solution.
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А для того, чтобы срочно дать Греции бабок от EU, все страны должны согласиться, что наличествует срочная проблема :
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Before any money flows, all 16 euro zone countries must first agree there is an emergency.
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С европейской бюрократией, пока они согласятся Греция уйдет под воду.
Относительно IMF - они просрали Аргентину, и более чем вероятно, повторят с Грецией.
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/04/06/ ... mf-rescue/
In 2003 the International Monetary Fund published yet another internal review with an impressively dull title “The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001”. But hidden in that text is explosive language and great clarity of thought – in essence, the IMF staff belatedly recognized that their decision to repeatedly bailout Argentina from the mid-1990s through 2002 was wrong:
“The IMF should refrain from entering or maintaining a program relationship with a member country when there is no immediate balance of payments need and there are serious political obstacles to needed policy adjustment or structural reform” (p.7, recommendation 4).
If Mr. Trichet (head of the European Central Bank), Ms. Merkel (German Chancellor), and Mr. Sarkozy (French President) have not reviewed this document yet, they should skim it immediately. Because one day soon Greece will be calling on the IMF for a loan, and it seems mostly likely that the mistakes made in Argentina will be repeated.
There are disconcerting parallels between Argentina’s catastrophic decade, 1991-2001, which ended in massive default, and Greece’s recent and impending difficulties. The main difference being that Greece is far more indebted, is much less competitive in global markets, and needs a commensurately greater fiscal and wage adjustment.
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Will the IMF prepare a program with drastic fiscal cuts, sticking to the lesson it learned from Argentina, in order to bring the nation back into solvency? Will they turn to the EU and be blunt: either you need to be prepared to provide Greece 150bn euros of loans over three years as credit lines, at low interest rates so they can afford it, or the program will be underfunded. Will they walk away from any program if the EU does not promise large enough funding, and the Greeks do not promise drastic enough cuts? And, would they dare to discuss a “Plan B” for Greece, as their own internal review suggested would have been best for Argentina back in the nineties?
The answer to all this seems very clear. The IMF will agree to another program that is very likely to fail, just like they did in Argentina.
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There are also powerful personal interests that will guide these decisions. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, current head of the IMF, is primarily focused on becoming the next President of France. It will not look good – to the French electorate – if the IMF is seen forcing a Greek default, nor if it demands that the Europeans provide over a hundred billion euros of long term financing. So, he surely wants to offer a lax short term program, which is backed up by promises for “greater austerity in the future if needed”. Greece will march on, mired in recession, with its debt stock growing as the IMF and EU fund them. The private sector, as in the case of Argentina, will simply not want to touch their debt. Dominique Strauss-Kahn can then declare his candidacy in early 2011, resign from the Fund, and let his successor force the true austerity – at which time Greece will suffer ever more under any solution.
It is also in the interests of most other members of the euro zone to just “kick the can down the road”. The other debt laden periphery nations are naturally terrified of a Greek collapse that will spill over to their nations. They will now lobby hard for the IMF to be generous, and they will be satisfied with partial steps. Perhaps this will give them time to prepare, but more likely, they will just kick the can down the road themselves – as the Portuguese seem to be doing with their lax fiscal budget announced for 2010. These nations surely underestimate how much worse this may get, and they continue to suckle on the cheap credit window which the ECB has, until now, kept open to them.
А пристыдишь их - и сальцо найдется, и горилочка...
Лапшу должен, спора нет 
Такая вот картина маслом ...