[quote:624b351cf7="du"]
Итак делаем следуюшее: выбираем случайный момент времени и случайный сток и покупаем его. Прибавляем к цене 1% и тут же ставим на лимит ордер. Вороятность того, что сток сказем за неделю ни разу не поднимится на 1% довольно мала (стоки постоянно колебаются) и меньше одного процента (сказем 0.5%). Итого с вероятностьу 0.995 мы получаем прибыль в 1% и с вероятностьу 0.005 получаем убыток в 100%. По-моему неплохо, если ешо добавить диверсификацию.[/quote:624b351cf7]
Не могу удержатсә чтобы не рассказатғ историө именно про ҝту тактику "day tradingá" .
As you will see from the story below I conculded and had always suspected that the probabilities your described above are not 0.995 and 0.005 respectively, but are close to something like 0.99 (or even less) and 0.01 (or more). Therefore, the net transactions expectation is break-even or worse, not to mention the transaction fees.
Here is what has happened:
One persons had extra cash say 50K$, good income and very limited expenses.
He (or she
decided to invest in US stocks about 1.5 or two months ago, thinking there are good opportunity to make dough in a long run, 12 months+.
This persons buys in two or three transactions in few days IBM and AMAT and is left with no cash.
He (she) told me he (ok, he) owns 500 shares of IBM he bought at ~$80 per share.
He is terrified to see the mounting losses in the next month. And he decides to
switch to the day trading tactics "du" decribed here. He wants to make 100-200 bucks a day (excluding the fees) in 2-3 transaction. The only difference was that the person decided to play on the "bear" slope now. He would sell IBM 500 shares to buy them (500shares) back later in 1-3 hrs at 0.5 to 1% lower levels. He was doing that succesfully for 10 days. His cash position increased by $2000, but the equity dropped. His expectation was that he would keep doing just that and eventually he would come out way ahead
He described that one day he was almost caught off guard with a sudden (unexpected) $2 surge in IBM share's price, but he was rescued by a followed drop. What happened next is:
He sold his 500 IBM's at a "blip" at $67.9 on August 7. He couldn't cover (buy them back) since. IBM keeps going higher, $76 now, but he sits on cash now - no more IBM shares.
There is always a probability to get you screwed and it is not that small relitively speaking.
With a similar outcome you could always double the next black (red) bid in the roullette - the probability to lose is small, but you lose a LOT.
The market is always right!
Good luck!
. И совсем же не важно, что она будет больше чем наша предполагаемая прибыль, которая базируется на нами предполагаемой вероятности. А уж про налоги с нашей громадной прибыли вообше даже не смейте заикаться. Хотя, я подозреваю, что о налогах в данном примере даже и говорить не пидется, зато может дядюшка Сем еше и назад отдаст денюжки 
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