интересный пост на boston real estate message board. Такое впечатление, что наш тред прочитал
It's tough...I want to agree with this, and in the end, several years from now, you may be right. It may wind up being 30%. Right now, by the end of this year, I think you'll see price changes in the 10-15% (from beginning of 2006) zone. I'd say we're at about 5% on average right now. Maybe by the end of next year, if the feds keep the rate the same or raise it, you'll most likely be looking at 20% (from beginning of 2006).
Let's admit something here, this scenario only works if the feds keep raising the rate.
I'd say that when I expand my range and look at 500K houses, I would expect to pay about 400K for them, so my personal thought is that houses are 20% overpriced right now, realistically. And don't forget, I think we're all talking about the Boston area, and not western or central MA. I can't attest to how good/bad the market is out there. But when you think about it, if I'm right and house prices have come down 20% by end of 07/spring 08, then you probably still won't be paying list price, so what you wind up paying may be close to 25% off current house values. But part of me thinks this just won't happen...either the feds won't allow it to, or flippers/speculators will just keep at it for a few more years...
But then I run the damn numbers and..things just don't look good. From
http://www.massbudget.org/article.php?id=253 (among other sites) "The median income for four-person families in Massachusetts was $82,281 (in constant 2003 dollars) for the 2000-2002 period. For all households (not just four-person families) the median household income in Massachusetts was $50,955 in 2001-2003. By both measures, Massachusetts continues to be substantially above the overall national level, ranking among the top fifth of states."
I make slightly more than the 4 person income by myself, so i can attest to the monthly mortgage payments and what kind of a chunk it removes from your take-home. Figure the average house price right now stays at 360K. let's say you take the safe route (in my opinion, the only route the average home buyer should take) and get a 30 year fixed rate. There's a good chance you don't have 20% down. let's say you have 10%. You're looking at a 324K mortgage at, let's say 6.7% to be fair.
About $2100 without insurance or taxes, let's figure $2400 would be a very conservative estimate.
The average family (according to stats) probably takes home about $4K a month, so it's more than half your take home. Then count in the necesseties, rising cost of commuting, energy...I don't have kids, so I can't imagine the monthly bill. At 360K (around here) you're probably looking at what, 900-1200 sq ft? With 2 kids? In what kind of neighborhood? What are you going to save?
$2400 mortgage, $100 average heating bill, $50-$70 average electrical, $80 phone, $80 cable, $150 car insurance, excise tax, water bill, on and on...jesus christ people, you just can't sustain this for very long, can you? Car payments, debts, food, gas for the car/commuter rail...
Every time I say "well maybe the bubble isn't there" I get the gnawing in the back of my mind with these numbers....and I don't know, it spells trouble to me. And the 360K houses I see around the metro area are kind of s**tholes (I've said this a million times). So you're looking at updates ranging prob between 20K-50K. So the thing that gnaws at me, really, is that no matter how many anti-bubble people post here, you can't deny that the middle class is just about being squeezed to the breaking point in MA right now.
Something has to give here, right? It's all a matter of when.
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