Economists Predict Another Rate Increase
Thu Nov 11, 6:49 AM ET
By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... t_rates_37
WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policy-makers encouraged by the economy's performance may bump up interest rates again in December — a fifth time this year — and will continue to tighten credit in 2005, economists predict.
The latest increase in short-term rates came on Wednesday, moving the federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent. That rate stood at 1 percent, a 46-year low, when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) and his colleagues began raising rates in late June. Over the past five months, the central bank has made four quarter-point moves.
The increases are part of a gradual process to wean the economy from what was an extraordinarily low federal funds rate. This rate, which is the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans, is the Fed's main tool to influence the economy.
Economic activity is solid, job growth is picking up and consumers are spending sufficiently. Thus, the economy is in good shape and no longer needs the aid of extra low rates, a tonic through the 2001 recession and terrorist attacks, economists said.
"I remain convinced that another ... rate hike remains in store for next month," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
Economists noted that a funds rate too low could sow the seeds of inflation and have stressed the importance of moving the rate back to more normal levels. Some analysts believe a funds rate of around 4 percent would be relatively neutral, meaning it would neither slow nor stimulate economic activity.
There are eight scheduled Fed meetings in 2005; the first is Feb. 1-2. The pace of Fed increases next year will depend on the state of the economy and inflation, analysts said.
In response to the Fed's decision Wednesday to push up the funds rate, Wells Fargo said it was increasing by a corresponding amount its prime lending rate for many short-term consumer and business loans to 5 percent. Other commercial banks followed suit.
If the Fed does raises the funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 14 meeting, then the prime rate would move up to 5.25 percent; the prime rate moves in lockstep with the funds rate.
Even with the Fed's four rate increases, long-term interest rates such as mortgage rates have been subdued. That is keeping the housing market vibrant, helping to support the overall economy.
Just a few weeks ago, a growing number of economists believed the Fed would probably take a pause in December and leave rates alone. Now the odds of a rate increase are rising for next month, they said. But should the economy show signs of weakness, the Fed might forgo pushing up rates again.
Most economists said there were nothing in the Fed's post-meeting statement Wednesday to suggest it may take a breather. In fact, economists believed the Fed's assessment of economic conditions was positive.
The Fed said the economy "appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices."
The economy grew at a respectable 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Oil prices, which hit a record high of just over $55 a barrel late last month, clocked in at over $48 a barrel in trading on Wednesday.
Even with high energy prices, the Fed said that inflation and longer-term inflation expectations "remain well contained." That's a key reason why the Fed can stick with its gradual approach to raising rates, analysts said.
Fed policy-makers also noted that "labor market conditions have improved."
The economy added a sizable 337,000 jobs in October, the most since March, the government said last week. While the figures were helped by job gains related to hurricane cleanup efforts, they nonetheless raised hopes that the recovery in the labor market, which has been uneven, is gaining some real traction.
The pickup in October's payrolls was welcome news to President Bush (news - web sites), who sparred frequently with Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) over the health of the labor market.
"We should expect additional rate hikes," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "With the view that the labor markets are coming back and inflation well contained, there is little reason to expect any stoppage in the process for quite some time."