Real Estate market

AnyaGal · Post by **AnyaGal** » 31 Aug 2001 01:48

Что-то мне в последнее время кажется, что появляется все больше и больше домов на продажу.
Неужели рынок недвижимости потихоньку отворачивается от продавцов и поворачивается к покупателям?

Кто-нибудь замечал подобное в своих районах?

Если рынок действительно меняется, то на какое время? У кого какие прогнозы?
Что сейчас лучше делать если есть мысль покупать недвижимость? Подождать еще?

Geron · Post by **Geron** » 31 Aug 2001 02:24

Лучше подождать пока. Рынок явно перегрет и реогирует с задержкой. Мedian house price/median income слишком велик. Если бы вы купили дом в ЛА или СД в 1989 то вам бы пришлось ждать 6-7+ лет чтобы продать за ту же цену. Вот когда безработитца достигнет 7%, можно начинать смотреть. JMHO

Vctr · Post by **Vctr** » 04 Sep 2001 04:29

[img]images/smiles/icon_eek.gif[/img] <BLOCKQUOTE>quote

Вот когда безработитца достигнет 7%, можно начинать смотреть

Может не совсем по теме, а что сомнений нет, что скоро достигнит...

elk · Post by **elk** » 04 Sep 2001 04:40

У нас в окрестностях цены примерно на 7-10% упали с пиковых уровней. Но всё равно выше чем года полтора назад.

Cheers,
elk.

lxf · Post by **lxf** » 04 Sep 2001 14:58

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Originally posted by elk:
У нас в окрестностях цены примерно на 7-10% упали с пиковых уровней. Но всё равно выше чем года полтора назад.
elk.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
В МА цены пока не падают.

Sasha K · Post by **Sasha K** » 05 Sep 2001 01:44

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Originally posted by AnyaGal:
Что-то мне в последнее время кажется, что появляется все больше и больше домов на продажу.
Неужели рынок недвижимости потихоньку отворачивается от продавцов и поворачивается к покупателям?

Кто-нибудь замечал подобное в своих районах?

Если рынок действительно меняется, то на какое время? У кого какие прогнозы?
Что сейчас лучше делать если есть мысль покупать недвижимость? Подождать еще?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Зависит от того, в каком price range Вы ищите. Пока цены на дома дешевле $500К не падают (хотелось бы надеяться), но рынок стал более похож на нормальный. Я бы искал пока, и, если попадетстся "дом Вашей мечты", то покупал бы. Если, конечно, Вы не планируете его продавать через пару лет.

kysaya · Post by **kysaya** » 05 Sep 2001 01:52

У нас пока не падают ни цены, ни продажи - даже сами аналитики рынка недвижимости несколько изумлены [img]images/smiles/icon_wink.gif[/img]

AnyaGal · Post by **AnyaGal** » 05 Sep 2001 02:09

Я не думаю, что цены на дома упадут (если и упадут, то, скорее всего, временно). Просто мне кажется, что если спрос немного спадет, а предложение увеличится, то появится больше времени на обдумывание и появится приятная возможность поторговаться.

Интересно, а помнит ли кто-нибудь как реагировал рынок недвижимости во время последней рецессии? Как на него влияет растущая безработица?
Как долго может продержаться низкая ставка?
Как скоро может начать расти инфляция, а вслед за ней и процентные ставки?

[ 04-09-2001: Message edited by: AnyaGal ]

Geron · Post by **Geron** » 09 Sep 2001 05:39

The Basics
Buying a home? Why it could pay to wait
House prices will likely come under increased selling pressure from general economic weakness and a growing population of over-leveraged homeowners. Those who need to sell are the most vulnerable, but patient buyers could really win.
By Scott Burns

Stock markets come and go, but we always love our homes. Find a credit card
that fits.
We'll help you look.

One reason is simple bulk. More Americans own homes than own common stock. Most people have more at stake in the real estate market than in the stock market. Indeed, until household net worth exceeds a lofty $500,000, home values are, well, the ball game.

So it shouldn't have surprised me when a lot of e-mail followed my column on whether housing was "the other bubble." The flow increased after the Sept. 3 issue of Forbes magazine pictured a couple whose Los Altos, Calif., house had lost $1 million in value. The magazine cover asks, "What if home prices crashed?"

Most readers had a simple question: "Should we sell now?" Others asked, "Should we put off buying?"

Homeownership: More personal than economic
Answering those questions isn't easy because most homeownership decisions are more personal than economic. At the most impersonal level, homeownership appears to be a lead-pipe cinch. If you examine the national median resale price for existing homes since 1970, what you see is an unbroken progression from $23,000 to $146,900 in the second quarter of this year. While some years have had smaller increases than others, the long-term rate of increase has been about 6% a year. That's slightly better than the rate of inflation over the period.

Unfortunately, these figures are like the proverbial pond with an average depth of 1 foot -- you can still drown in the deep spots. The oil bust losses and foreclosures that filled Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado in the late 1980s aren't visible. Nor are the aerospace/defense phase-downs that hit Southern California.

The National Association of Realtors also provides four regional indexes -- the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Like the national index, the indexes for the Midwest and South are a steady progression. The Northeast and West tell a different story. Both areas have experienced periods of sagging prices.

In the West, prices peaked at $147,200 in 1991. They bottomed at $142,600 in 1993 and surpassed their 1991 high in 1995 at $148,300. Since then, prices in the West have spiked upward, reaching $193,900 at the end of the second quarter of this year.

The slump in the Northeast has been more pronounced. Prices peaked at $145,200 in 1989, having spiked sharply from the early 1980s. After 1989, prices didn't bottom until 1995. The loss was 4.2%.

Prices surpassed the 1989 figure only in the second quarter of this year. This means home prices in the Northeast have been soggy for more than 11 years. That's longer than most people own their homes.

Add the cost of selling a home -- about 7% of its market value -- and you start to get a sense of vulnerability.

Who's vulnerable? Anyone who needs to sell.

Strong vs. weak holders
If you own your house with little debt, have a secure job and are unlikely to move, you're a strong holder. If you have a lot of debt, don't have a secure job and are likely to move, you're a weak holder.

And there's the rub. The weak-holder population has been rising faster than the strong-holder population. Some of the weakness comes from over-leveraging, as homebuyers put down smaller down payments and borrow more. Additional weakness comes from the rising volume of home equity credit lines. Still more comes from raw circumstance -- the implosion of technology capital spending, the developing contraction in financial services and the weakness in manufacturing. As a result, housing prices will be under increased selling pressure. More people will need to sell than will need to buy.

Does this mean you should avoid the rush and sell your home now? Hardly. Weak or strong, you don't sell your home because the market is up or down. You sell it when your personal circumstances make it appropriate because it is your home.

Should you defer a home purchase?

Yes, unless it's a very special deal or you're confident that you'll own the house for a relatively long time.

Sergey_P · Post by **Sergey_P** » 25 Sep 2001 03:38

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Originally posted by Geron-:
The Basics
Buying a home? Why it could pay to wait
House prices will likely come under increased selling pressure from general economic weakness and a growing population of over-leveraged homeowners. Those who need to sell are the most vulnerable, but patient buyers could really win.
By Scott Burns ...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Простите за невежество, но кто этот Scott Burns ? И когда эта статья была написана?