Спекуляция Деривативами - Trade Ideas !!!

[venumpro]

I assume that the Call side of the IC was breached.
If this is correct, what is the delta of the short call? If delta is .69 or below, I would not do anything. If it is above .69, I would close/roll/adjust, whatever is appropriate.

Here is my reasoning for this approach. The primary reason we don't trade stocks, we don't want to take 50/50 shots. .69 or below delta of your breached short strike means that the probability of touch for this strike is slightly greater than 50%.

Also, there are more considerations. Is it your standalone trade or portfolio trade? What is the width of the strikes of the call side? What the overall delta of your portfolio?

You also have to keep in mind, that IC is generally low probability trade with the odds of success somewhere around 60%. Also, the closer your winds are, more time it takes to see profit

[ie]

I assume that the Call side of the IC was breached.
If this is correct, what is the delta of the short call? If delta is .69 or below, I would not do anything. If it is above .69, I would close/roll/adjust, whatever is appropriate.

yes.. thanks a lot for good answer.
the question is when. do i do it now? or i wait till expiration?

[venumpro]

I assume that the Call side of the IC was breached.
If this is correct, what is the delta of the short call? If delta is .69 or below, I would not do anything. If it is above .69, I would close/roll/adjust, whatever is appropriate.

yes.. thanks a lot for good answer.
the question is when. do i do it now? or i wait till expiration?

What was the original trade? Need strikes and price

[ie]

I assume that the Call side of the IC was breached.
If this is correct, what is the delta of the short call? If delta is .69 or below, I would not do anything. If it is above .69, I would close/roll/adjust, whatever is appropriate.

yes.. thanks a lot for good answer.
the question is when. do i do it now? or i wait till expiration?

What was the original trade? Need strikes and price

SPX C: 2275 - 2300 P: 2250 - 2275

credit $20.02 -- результат нескольких adjustments.

[venumpro]

SPX C: 2275 - 2300 P: 2250 - 2275

credit $20.02 -- результат нескольких adjustments.

Как вариант, могу предложить мой личный подход к торговле опционами. На вашу ситуацию я смотрю, как на простую математическую задачку. А именно, как сделать так, что б уменьшить риск и увеличить probability of profit.

Исходные данные:

Max profit: $20.02
Max loss: $4.98
Probability of making max profit: 16%
Probability of making 50% of max profit 30%

The odds are clearly not your favor, so you have to do something, immediately.

1. The easiest way to defend losing position would be extending duration without increasing the risk. Accordingly, I would try to roll the call spread to Feb or March monthly expiration for credit or for even. If I have to pay for rolling, I would not do it.

2. If I cannot roll, I would try to increase my chances with new positions. Probably, I would have sold 2 naked 229 puts in SPY for 95 cents (same expiration) and hoped that market sells off. When you sell puts, you will reduce your max loss from SPX trade from 4.98 to 3.08. You have 10.00 in downside protection from SPX trade so there is not much risk.

3. Do nothing and pray. $400 loss is not that bad.

[venumpro]

Really cool research on low VIX
http://ontt.tv/2jB9aS1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[ie]

я смотрю, как на простую математическую задачку.

венум, спасибо за ответ. я согласен с 98% что вы написали,
но....

вот у нас "Probability of making max profit: 16%"

если я roll как вы говорите "immediately" -- я тем самым выбрасывают эти 16% -- так или нет?
может есть смысл дождаться и продавать перед самым экспирайшн?

[venumpro]

If you roll to February, your short call would have 34 delta. Now your delta is 24. March delta of 2275 call is 40. By rolling out, you increase your probabilities.

[ie]

By rolling out, you increase your probabilities.

однозначно. но што мешает мне скушать мои 16% and roll-out next week?

[venumpro]

Sure, you can.

Personally, I don't trade like this. I never enter trades when the odds are against me. I also roll early. On Friday, I've already started rolling from Feb to March. But I don't really enjoy trading. For me it more like a boring job you have to do to make X amount of money every year.

[worldCitizen]

I assume that the Call side of the IC was breached.
If this is correct, what is the delta of the short call? If delta is .69 or below, I would not do anything. If it is above .69, I would close/roll/adjust, whatever is appropriate.

yes.. thanks a lot for good answer.
the question is when. do i do it now? or i wait till expiration?

What was the original trade? Need strikes and price

SPX C: 2275 - 2300 P: 2250 - 2275
credit $20.02 -- результат нескольких adjustments.

правильный термин, Iron butterfly when writing the same strike put and call.
Вы пользуетесь каким-нибудь калькулятором?

[ie]

правильный термин, Iron butterfly when writing the same strike put and call.

точно

Вы пользуетесь каким-нибудь калькулятором?

конешно. но как тут калькулятор поможет...

[venumpro]

BTW, SPX is primarily used by institutions. I find it very difficult to trade this product with my size. Bid/Ask spread is too wide and it takes forever to close or roll the position. I prefer SPY, which happen to be most liquid product out there.

[venumpro]

Let's see how markets treat Trump's actions over the weekend. Hopefully, we'll have some volatility to play with

[ie]

Let's see how markets treat Trump's actions over the weekend. Hopefully, we'll have some volatility to play with

ditto to this