american way

[MaxSt]

you can't say that in Russia people may be producing a comparable amount of goods and services, but they are just priced cheaper... Therefore, we can say that americants work about 4 times "better" if measured in real, non-monetary value...

Допустим, в Америке я заплатил в barber shop за стрижку $20, а в России за ту же самую услугу - $5. Значит ли из этого что я получил в 4 раза худшую стрижку? "if measured in real, non-monetary value"?

MaxSt.

[Domicianus]

you can't say that in Russia people may be producing a comparable amount of goods and services, but they are just priced cheaper... Therefore, we can say that americants work about 4 times "better" if measured in real, non-monetary value...

Допустим, в Америке я заплатил в barber shop за стрижку $20, а в России за ту же самую услугу - $5. Значит ли из этого что я получил в 4 раза худшую стрижку? "if measured in real, non-monetary value"?

MaxSt.

Во! А я позавчерась ночью доехал на такси от МКАДа до своего центра за $5. С заездом в несколько ночных магазинов по дороге. Сколько ночью стоит по Нью-Йорку с окраины на Манхеттен доехать?

[Mike R]

Допустим, в Америке я заплатил в barber shop за стрижку $20, а в России за ту же самую услугу - $5. Значит ли из этого что я получил в 4 раза худшую стрижку? "if measured in real, non-monetary value"?

Actually using PPP ajusted values allows to solve exactly this problem... The way they calculated GDP per capita is:

they take a "bucket of goods and services" kinda 2 bananas, 1/10 of a car, 1/2 of a t-shirt etc... then they calculate the cost of this bucket in the US... say it is $1000 and cost in Russia $500... then they divide russian GDP by population ... say it is $4000... but, as you said, in russia stuff is cheaper... the bucket says it is cheaper two times on average... so they multiply $4000 by 2 and get $8000 which is russian gdp per capita in american prices... this process is not perfect, because russian car is worse than american car etc.. but it is usually pretty close to reality... so if we see that there is still 4 times difference, it means that average russian produces 4 times less physical stuff than average american...

[Mike R]

It is not too late to jump on the wagon and make some dough on the falling dollar by buying foreign currency or gold and selling them later when dollar falls more.

CBI, did you hear about "efficient markets theory"? it says that in modern market all informaiton is already included in price of a financial instrument... You basically assume that you know more about future exchange rates than people who have 1 billion times more money than you have, special research departments, access to all the information in real time etc... May be you are a financial prodigy, but in this case i would recommend you to go and work for an investment bank and make 50mil a year
Just think... if it is obvious for all this professional people that dollar/euro will be 1.5 in two years, they would immideately start shorting dollar and price would go down from 1.1 to 1.4 in a matter of minutes... you would never be able to catch up with them... So, if in this very second dollar/euro is 1.1 it means that markets believe that this is a good price for a dollar... they don't know if it goes up or down from here... it seems like you do
I didn't mean that you shouldn't speculate... why not... just don't forget that this is a risky financial operation with uncertain outcome... you may win, you may loose.. chances are even...

[Domicianus]

Actually using PPP ajusted values allows to solve exactly this problem... The way they calculated GDP per capita is:

they take a "bucket of goods and services" kinda 2 bananas, 1/10 of a car, 1/2 of a t-shirt etc... then they calculate the cost of this bucket in the US... say it is $1000 and cost in Russia $500... then they divide russian GDP by population ... say it is $4000... but, as you said, in russia stuff is cheaper... the bucket says it is cheaper two times on average... so they multiply $4000 by 2 and get $8000 which is russian gdp per capita in american prices... this process is not perfect, because russian car is worse than american car etc.. but it is usually pretty close to reality... so if we see that there is still 4 times difference, it means that average russian produces 4 times less physical stuff than average american...

Ерунда это всё. Пустое жонглирование цифрами - по крайней мере в отношении российского ВВП. В России огромное количество производимых товаров и особенно услуг пролетает мимо статистики. Тот водила, который меня вёз - он в налоговую свои доходы декларировать не побежит. И так везде - предприятия и организации занижают показатели своего производства, торговцы - объёмы продаж, население - доходы. О реальном положении дел с ВВП России, как и с доходами населения, можно судить только по косвенным признакам. Иначе сложно объяснить, как при официальном росте реальных доходов населения на 9% за 2002 год импорт новых иномарок в Россию за тот же год вырос на 30%, а подержанных - на 60%

[MaxSt]

so if we see that there is still 4 times difference, it means that average russian produces 4 times less physical stuff than average american...

No, it doesn't mean that. You have yet to justify that.

Кстати, что это за зверь - "physical stuff"? Услуги считаются "physical stuff"?

MaxSt.

[Mike R]

Ерунда это всё. Пустое жонглирование цифрами - по крайней мере в отношении российского ВВП

As i said, it is not perfect... but low labor productivity is THE problem for russian economy ... There was a very good study conducted by McKinsey on comparison btwn russian and american productivity... i will try to find it and post the link here... or you can try searching www.mckinsey.com

[Mike R]

Oh... i found the report.. it is about 1999, but it is still very actuall and interesting to read.. you will have to register on their web site ... http://www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi/Russia/

if somebody doesn't know McKinsey is the #1 strategy consulting firm in the world... they are bright guys

[Mike R]

Mike R писал(а):
so if we see that there is still 4 times difference, it means that average russian produces 4 times less physical stuff than average american...


No, it doesn't mean that. You have yet to justify that.

Кстати, что это за зверь - "physical stuff"? Услуги считаются "physical stuff"?

MaxSt.

I am sorry for using such unsophisticated term From the macroeconomics standpoint there is no difference btwn goods and services... So, yes, they are "physical stuff"

how can i justify something if you don't believe in statistics see that McKinsey report... but you can always say "what do they know, these stupid MBAs and PhDs at McKinsey"
actually one of the biggest reasons for low productivity is poor technology... for me it is obvious that russian technology in most industries is inferior to the US... You can go even deeper - technology comes from investments... situation with investment capital in russia you probably know...

[CBI]

It is not too late to jump on the wagon and make some dough on the falling dollar by buying foreign currency or gold and selling them later when dollar falls more.

CBI, did you hear about "efficient markets theory"? it says that in modern market all informaiton is already included in price of a financial instrument... You basically assume that you know more about future exchange rates than people who have 1 billion times more money than you have, special research departments, access to all the information in real time etc... May be you are a financial prodigy, but in this case i would recommend you to go and work for an investment bank and make 50mil a year
Just think... if it is obvious for all this professional people that dollar/euro will be 1.5 in two years, they would immideately start shorting dollar and price would go down from 1.1 to 1.4 in a matter of minutes... you would never be able to catch up with them... So, if in this very second dollar/euro is 1.1 it means that markets believe that this is a good price for a dollar... they don't know if it goes up or down from here... it seems like you do
I didn't mean that you shouldn't speculate... why not... just don't forget that this is a risky financial operation with uncertain outcome... you may win, you may loose.. chances are even...

What you are saying does make sence. But dollar is not 1.4 euros yet because rapid fall can cause upheavals in all the markets. Therefore, all the central banks now are trying to slow the fall down.

[MaxSt]

how can i justify something if you don't believe in statistics

Я не просил вас to justify ваши исходные данные.
Я просил вас to justify ваши выводы - что в России производится в 4 раза меньше услуг. "if measured in real, non-monetary value".

MaxSt.

[Mike R]

AB-K got the next data from CIA ...

GDP – per capita in 2001/ 2000 / 1999/
(PPP)-паритетная покупательная способность.

"GDP per capita (PPP)" actually means that the physical volume of goods and services was measured (not their prices)... it is not my conlusion, i just tried to explain the varible in this data set... you know, with backets and stuff that is HOW it is DONE... it is not MY idea... so, by saying that in Russia people do not report sales etc, you are quesioning this methodology... the only thing i did is i divided american number by russian number ... and said it is 4 times...

[siharry]

It is very old word in macroeconomics ) Demand does depend on supply and supply on productivity (by the way productivity is not proizvodstvo... eto proizvoditelnost truda)... at least this is the most popular theory now...

Вы книжки не перепутали? Читали случайно не политэкономию социализма?
О том, что благополучие(потребление) советского народа зависит от объема произведенных советским народом штанов, банок с огурцами и матералов очередного съезда.

А то я глазам не поверил, когда увидел Ваши откровения в предыдущем посте. То-то сейчас специалисты ломают голову, как пофиксить кризис в IT отрасли...
А тут гениальное решение - что надо каждому безработному программисту написать по мегабайту кода и NASDAQ опять взлетит к 5000.

say there is a world where there is only two people - you and me... I hope you are a nice person

Кстати, я абсолютно уверен, что Вы тоже absolutely nice person.

year 1... you can produce two pair of pants and i can produce 2 tons of potato... i exchange one ton of potato for 1 pair of your pants... So we both have pants and potatos... cool...
year 2 you can produce two pair of pants and two T-shirts... i can produce 2 tons of potato and 2 tons of apples... we made our usual exchange: potato-pants... than you see that i have apples... and i see that you have t-shirts

Wow... let's make another exchange: t-shirts for apples .... so our productivity has grown and supply has grown... which allowed us to increase our demand... why then (you can ask) crisises are usually because of overproduction/overcapacity? because in the year two you might have been stupid and produced 4 pair of pants... you need one, i need one... nobody needs the other 2 So the problem was that you produce the wrong thing... but the fact that you learned how to produce 4 pair of pants instead of 2 is POSITIVE... and it will grow our with you total wealth as soon as you understand that you need to spend half of your time producing pants and another half producing something else...

Чего могу сказать. Во время Великой Депрессии многие ощутили Ваш позитив. Если я правильно Вас понял ожидающийся экономический кирдык с философской точки зрения есть сплошной "POSITIVE". Может быть, может быть... На очередные лет 70 американцы поймут, что нужно жить по средствам...

I can expect that you can say that demand has regulated how many of each product to produce in our world, which is right... but overall total POTENTIAL demand (aggregate) for all our products is endless: we want pants, shirts, houses, cars, services, yahts, airplanes etc... and our ability to acheive all this stuff depends on our productivity -- ability to create more value per person per hour -- supply...

Mike R, вы путаете желания(то, что каждый want), то есть потребности(demand) c ВОЗМОЖНОСТЯМИ(ability).

Вспомним замечательное: "Хочу купить Жигули, но не имею возможности. Могу купить козу, но не имею желания. Выпьем за то, чтобы потребности совпадали с возможностями."

Так вот на уровне возможностей и кроется засада, которая расписывается в более продвинутых главах экономических книжек. Когда все слишком ХОТЯТ, то появляется опасность нарушения общего баланса спроса и предложения.
И появляются ПУЗЫРИ.

И приходит время, когда, по меткому выражению Баффета наступает похмелье после загула. Когда лопаются пузыри, и когда все стремится и ДОЛЖНО ПРИЙТИ В НОРМУ.

- Когда должно РЕЗКО обвалиться потребление, прийдя к нормальным пропорциям (сбережение/потребление), что обвалит производственный сектор и сектор услуг.
- Когда должен обвалится (прийти в норму) рынок недвижимости, обрушив по пути страховой и банковский сектор.
- Когда должны обанкротится огромное количество компаний, наделавших долгов за время загула и по пути выкинуть на улицу миллионы людей, которые в свою очередь завалят сектор потребления со последующим ударом по производственному сектору.
- Когда должен упасть еще раза в полтора-два Dow, прийдя к нормальным показателям цена/доходность акций (P/E). Так как при обвале он просвистит мимо нормы, то по некоторым прогнозам, ориентир Dow - около 2500 (не путать с NASDAQ). А при повторении сценария Великой Депрессии - 1500 пунктов.
- Когда единственным выходом из спирали дефляционного коллапса будет включение печатного станка на полную мощь, что уничтожит американскую финансовую систему.
- Когда рухнувшие деривативы утянут на дно международную финансовую систему, а на ее обломках вырастет временное уродливое подобие "золотого стандарта".

Главное чтобы не было WW3. По сравнению с ней, все остальное - сплошной "POSITIVE".

[Mike R]

Вы книжки не перепутали? Читали случайно не политэкономию социализма?
О том, что благополучие(потребление) советского народа зависит от объема произведенных советским народом штанов, банок с огурцами и матералов очередного съезда.

Yes, that is exactly my and most economists' point of view

Take again my model of the world where only you and I live ( hmm... i guess at least we would have something to talk about ) ... Try to prove that my logic is wrong... the more stuff we can make (pants, cucumbers, potatoes etc) the reacher we are... currencies, exchange rates etc it is just a system that help several billion people to exchange their goods and services... the system is complicated and for a while we can get mixed up, produce the wrong things, but later it streightens out and works again...

the problem with IT is that people overestimated the demand for IT stuff and created overcapacity... it is just like we need pants and potatoes, but you wrote 100 pages of code instead of making the stuff we need... with time you will understand your mistake and will start making pants again (I hope you wouldn't have to do this if you are a programmer ) In real life, in my MBA class i have many former programmers who decided to get a new profession... with time capacity will go down, prices go up etc etc... Again if we had productivity growth and knew exactly what to produce and how much, there wouldn't be any crisis... We need crisises to reajust, take people, investments etc from overproducing industries to underproducing/underperforming ones... and cycle will start again...

[Capricorn]

Во! А я позавчерась ночью доехал на такси от МКАДа до своего центра за $5. С заездом в несколько ночных магазинов по дороге. Сколько ночью стоит по Нью-Йорку с окраины на Манхеттен доехать?

Понятие "окраина NY" несколько расплывчато. Но попробуем: от аеропорта JFK до центра Манхаттана около $45-50 ( поправте, если ошибаюсь ). Расстояние наверно около 30 КМ.