Dr Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), described Georgia's decision to shell the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, as a brazen effort to humiliate the Russians.
And he said the timing of Georgia's decision to tackle its separatists – with many world leaders away in Beijing for the Olympics – was "a calculated gamble".
"The president of Georgia has timed this action very well to coincide with the Olympic games," said Eyal.
"It's at a time when everyone's attention is elsewhere and most world leaders are not in their capitals.
"It is clearly a calculated gamble by the Georgians. If they manage to overrun South Ossetia, where there are probably only around 1,000 Russian troops at the moment, they will have humiliated Russia and would have created a triumph for themselves.
"They will also have propelled the West into a diplomatic involvement on the ground."
"There is an element of trying to call the Russians' bluff by assuming that the Russians will not be able to afford all-out war in Georgia," said Eyal.
Eyal claimed that Georgia's move to strike South Ossetia would generate a mixed reaction from world powers.
"There is considerable sympathy for Georgia among western governments such as the US and London. It is clear that the Russians have fermented the separatist movement for a particular strategic purpose.
"There is also however an enormous amount of frustration with the reckless behaviour of the Georgian president at this moment."
Natalia Leshchenko, a Russia analyst at Global Insight, agreed that Russia was able to use South Ossetia as useful leverage to agitate Georgia.
The South Ossetian government was "helpless to retaliate in any way" without Russia's support.
"For Russia, South Ossetia is a useful means to undermine and cause inconvenience to the unfriendly Georgian government which sees itself as the US outpost in the post-Soviet space, and seeks to join Nato, which is very annoying to Russia," she added.
"The Russian government is not likely to take the killing of its peace-keeping troops in the province overnight lightly."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/au ... a.georgia1
