Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

[inock]

Интересуют мнения всех желающих высказаться по следующему вопросу. Предположим, вы абсолютно точно знаете, в какой момент цены на акции проходят дно падения. Что бы вы купили в этой точке?

Я, вроде бы, начал подумывать в этом смысле об акциях АМД... а у вас какие предпочтения?

СПЫ и ЪЪЪ. Когда они упадут ниже плинтуса. Когда это произойдет, они там (ниже плинтуса) будут находиться какое то время. Купить успеют все.

Как там:"Налетай подешевело!"

Вошёл в миниципальные бонды. Пока неплохо прут.

Все эти попытки маркет тайминг обречены на провал. И это хорошо!

А какие у вас планы по поводу муниципальных бондов? Вы их продадите через какое-то время или собираетесь держать до конца, до погашения?

У меня они в фонде смесь муниципальных с разными сроками погашения. Пока рабоает вместо CD. Не знаю как они будут себя вести, если Продам месяца через три.

[strogov]

Yo, we need active traders. If everybody indexes, there'll be no price discovery

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

Противопоставление индексирования и активной торговли уж лет двадцать как устарело. Например в данном случае я упомянул, что вложил деньги в PSI - так это индексный(!) фонд. Однако он активно торгуется. Однако я-то указал, что купил его не в качестве активной торговли, а для того, чтобы держать долго...

Когда понятие об индексировании только-только появилось лет тридцать-сорок назад, то под этим подразумевалось не индексирование в общем смысле этого слова, а нечто более простое, более примитивное... Не такое индексирование как у PSI имелось в виду, он-то вкладывает деньги очень узконаправленно, в область полупроводников. Однако после изобретения etfs подразумевать под индексированием что-то противоположное активной торговле никак невозможно.

[strogov]

Cool.
I am short Nasdaq and getting shorter every day it goes up. If you make money in PSI, some of it is mine

Расскажите, пожалуйста, из каких соображений вы решаете, что шортить?

На какой параметр вы смотрите, когда решаете в лонг или в шорт позицию открыть?

Всё зависит от того, в какую игру вы играете. Некоторые игроки чертят всякие линии и смотрят на какието индикаторы когда решают шортать сток или индекс. Другие, смотрят за макро картиной мира или за fundamentals. Третьи - momentum трейдеры (типа тех, о ком OtherSide говорил в соседнем топике). O них ничего сказать не могу.

Лично я - premium seller. Тут всё просто. В любое время, у меня минимум 50-60 опционов продано в разных стоках/индексах. Так что, by default, я всегда short volatility. Для того, что б минимизировать риски, я должен всегда быть шорт SPY, IWM или QQQ, и лонг слякий мусор с inflated IV.

Для примера сейчас, я short SPY и QQQ, нейтрален TSLA и NVDA, slightly long XOP, slightly short XLE, long XRT, LULU, JWN. Вся ета каша сводиться к трём цыфрам: Portfolio Delta, Portfolio Theta, и Vega.

As I understand, what you do about QQQ, is the following: you write an out-of-the-money naked call. This is what you call "to short QQQ". Am I right?

And the main point of your trade is that you choose your strike price much higher than QQQ price at the time, when you cell the option. In fact, you try to choose your strike price so, that it should stay higher than any probable QQQ price in the nearest future. This is what you call "to short QQQ". Am I right?

[venumpro]

Cool.
I am short Nasdaq and getting shorter every day it goes up. If you make money in PSI, some of it is mine

Расскажите, пожалуйста, из каких соображений вы решаете, что шортить?

На какой параметр вы смотрите, когда решаете в лонг или в шорт позицию открыть?

Всё зависит от того, в какую игру вы играете. Некоторые игроки чертят всякие линии и смотрят на какието индикаторы когда решают шортать сток или индекс. Другие, смотрят за макро картиной мира или за fundamentals. Третьи - momentum трейдеры (типа тех, о ком OtherSide говорил в соседнем топике). O них ничего сказать не могу.

Лично я - premium seller. Тут всё просто. В любое время, у меня минимум 50-60 опционов продано в разных стоках/индексах. Так что, by default, я всегда short volatility. Для того, что б минимизировать риски, я должен всегда быть шорт SPY, IWM или QQQ, и лонг слякий мусор с inflated IV.

Для примера сейчас, я short SPY и QQQ, нейтрален TSLA и NVDA, slightly long XOP, slightly short XLE, long XRT, LULU, JWN. Вся ета каша сводиться к трём цыфрам: Portfolio Delta, Portfolio Theta, и Vega.

As I understand, what you do about QQQ, is the following: you write an out-of-the-money naked call. This is what you call "to short QQQ". Am I right?

And the main point of your trade is that you choose your strike price much higher than QQQ price at the time, when you cell the option. In fact, you try to choose your strike price so, that it should stay higher than any probable QQQ price in the nearest future. This is what you call "to short QQQ". Am I right?

You are correct. I typically sell 30-40 delta calls if I want to short something.
With QQQ, however ..... all my calls are in the money I am short June 134, 135, 136, 138 and 140 calls. Next Tuesday will roll all of the them to July for credit.

Additionally, you can short something with options just like with stock. It's called synthetic short. This is when you buy put and sell same strike call. This position would be an equivalent of shorting 100 shares of stock. Today I synthetically shorted SPY by buying 141.5 puts and shorting 141.5 call.

[strogov]

Well, good luck with this, you will really need it... In particularly, it is unlikely, that QQQ will go down below 136, since the support was not overcome last time.

[venumpro]

Well, good luck with this, you will really need it... In particularly, it is unlikely, that QQQ will go down below 136, since the support was not overcome last time.

Посмотрим, как оно будет на самом деле.

Продал еше несколько 140 calls в QQQ.

[worldCitizen]

So speaks Jim:

Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?

Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.

Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.

Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff. We’ve had financial problems in America -- let’s use America -- every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. This is the longest or second longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes -- you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now -- that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now. In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now, even the Chinese have debt and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times, since 2008. It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime, my lifetime too. Be worried.
/////////////////// https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets ... ar-BBCo6W4

[Frecken Bock]

Какой мрачный прогноз!

[venumpro]

Rogers is a clown. He is waiting for markets to crash since 2008.

[venumpro]

Here is my take on the market direction, if anyone cares.

Market is a super efficient vehicle of redistributing wealth from many to few. As a result, in order to be successful, you have to always be on the other side of the crowd.

Unquestionably, for the exception of professional traders, the entire world is long the market today. So in my eyes, the only possible way to play it, is to short all tech and highflying stocks.

[KotKot]

Here is my take on the market direction, if anyone cares.

Market is a super efficient vehicle of redistributing wealth from many to few. As a result, in order to be successful, you have to always be on the other side of the crowd.

Unquestionably, for the exception of professional traders, the entire world is long the market today. So in my eyes, the only possible way to play it, is to short all tech and highflying stocks.

Каждый день кто-то предвещает обвал рынка и говорит или подразумевает, что стадо баранов вот уже очень скоро дружно отсосет, а "smart money" преумножат свои огромные состояния.

Проблема в том, какому из этих ораклов верить и когда именно. В 2009? 2013? Когда выбрали Трампа? Сейчас? Через год?

A broken clock is right twice a day, так что рано или поздно один из таких ясновидящих окажется прав. Проблема в том, что мы не знаем когда именно.

Что касается меня, то стратегия следующая:

-Only low cost index funds.
-Only long term buy and hold.
-Diversified portfolio of stocks (US and Intl), bonds, REITS and cash
-Slowly shifting assets from equity to fixed income with a target of up to 30-40 percent of portfolio in bonds/cash.
-No selling stocks even if/when the market drops. You don't lose money unless you buy high and sell low.

[venumpro]

.......

I don't disagree with you. We are in different business with different goals. Your goal is to preserve capital. If you are consistent and use unmanaged and LOW cost products, you will be fine. You will end up with the returns that are 100-150 basis points over inflation. I don't see anything wrong with it.

I am a speculator. I don't want S&P returns and would consider it as a failure. So I have to do a lot of things on a daily basis to meet my goal.

I don't believe in market crash and don't want it. It's bad for business. I hope it never happens.

[NoMercy]

Has anyone used Marc Spitzniegel's idea on achieving "asymmetric returns" by buying OTM puts on a regular basic?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... d-equities

[Beretta]

Has anyone used Marc Spitzniegel's idea on achieving "asymmetric returns" by buying OTM puts on a regular basic?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... d-equities

buying puts does not work.

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

[venumpro]

Has anyone used Marc Spitzniegel's idea on achieving "asymmetric returns" by buying OTM puts on a regular basic?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... d-equities

buying puts does not work.

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

It works, if you know how to time market. I never buy them because I suck at figuring out timing. For this reason, I am always short Once day I will be right

[Beretta]

It works, if you know how to time market.

my point exactly. знал бы прикуп - жил бы в Сочи (с)

[NoMercy]

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

That's exactly the idea: there WILL BE market crash (sooner or later). You just don't know WNEN. It works the same way as house/car insurance....And many-many people have their cars and houses insured...

[NoMercy]

For this reason, I am always short Once day I will be right

How do you stay always short? I dont think that you're shorting QQQ for years and just keep and keep selling )

What I dont get in Spitzniegel's approach is the case when the market is not rapidly plunging (and IV soars) but sinking for months and years. IV wouldn't soar and OTM puts expire worthless

[Beretta]

How do you stay always short? I dont think that you're shorting QQQ for years and just keep and keep selling )

да легко. I always have short delta on hand or long metals/bonds AND I trade around it. I am not always right, but I am always reducing cost bases.

What I dont get in Spitzniegel's approach is the case when the market is not rapidly plunging (and IV soars) but sinking for months and years. IV wouldn't soar and OTM puts expire worthless

люди поумнее нас посчитали, что just buying puts does not work - you run out of money before you get your payout. If you are willing to pay like you paying your insurance bill - this is different story.. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. But are you sure your payout will be large enough to cover your spending? it is way better selling SPY 5 delta put every month..

[Beretta]

Think of your insurance payments you make every month. You are buying a put. How often do you have fire/car crash? Exactly.

That's exactly the idea: there WILL BE market crash (sooner or later). You just don't know WNEN. It works the same way as house/car insurance....And many-many people have their cars and houses insured...

insurance business is a really good business to be in

[NoMercy]

люди поумнее нас посчитали, что just buying puts does not work - you run out of money before you get your payout. If you are willing to pay like you paying your insurance bill - this is different story.. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. But are you sure your payout will be large enough to cover your spending? it is way better selling SPY 5 delta put every month..

Ну я лично ничего не считал. Я обсуждаю подход, придуманный Спицнагелем при участии вроде Талеба... В корне лежит вопрос - как сделать asymmetric payout при прилете черного лебедя. Поскольку у Спицнагеля фонд, то очевидно его подход biased.. Why 5 delta?

[venumpro]

Buying 5-delta SPX options does not make any sense to me.

Let's say I bought July @2,220 put (5 delta) in SPX for 2.70 and paid $270 for it. If you look at the at the money SPX options, they trade for approximately $25.00. Lets assume that volatility would be higher in the event of crash, so the ATM SPX options would be $50.00. So, if SPX crashes $213 points tomorrow, you potentially can make $5,000-$270=$4,730 on each put.

So you have to pay $270 every months to potentially make $4,730 in the event of crash. Yearly cost of protection $3,240. It means that SPX has to drop 200+ points every 18 months for you to break even. Does not strike me as good business model.

[Beretta]

Why 5 delta?

95% that you keep your money. Ну,или выберите тот уровень риска, который вас устраивает.


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[Beretta]

В корне лежит вопрос - как сделать asymmetric payout при прилете черного лебедя. Поскольку у Спицнагеля фонд, то очевидно его подход biased.. Why 5 delta?

Я согласна с тем, что падение будет долгим, возможно, несколько месяцев. И предположим, вы short S&P. Вопрос в том, когда вы его close and get long. Вряд ли вы досидите до bottom. Я к тому, что даже если вы готовы к лебедю - then what?


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[NoMercy]

Buying 5-delta SPX options does not make any sense to me.

Let's say I bought July @2,220 put (5 delta) in SPX for 2.70 and paid $270 for it. If you look at the at the money SPX options, they trade for approximately $25.00. Lets assume that volatility would be higher in the event of crash, so the ATM SPX options would be $50.00. So, if SPX crashes $213 points tomorrow, you potentially can make $5,000-$270=$4,730 on each put.

So you have to pay $270 every months to potentially make $4,730 in the event of crash. Yearly cost of protection $3,240. It means that SPX has to drop 200+ points every 18 months for you to break even. Does not strike me as good business model.

With 5 delta - absolutely no. But they don't use 5 delta.

"On the other hand, our tail-hedged portfolio consists of S&P 500 and out-of-the-money put options (specifically one delta which has a strike roughly 30% to 35% below spot) on the S&P 500). At the beginning of every calendar month, using actual option prices, the number of third-month options (with a maturity from 11 to 12 weeks, and also carrying over the payoff from unexpired options) is determined such that the tail-hedged portfolio breaks even for a down 20% move in the S&P 500 over a month. From practice, for scaling the payoff, we can safely assume the S&P 500 options' implied volatility, or IVol, surface would look similar to the one observed after the lows of the October 2002 crash."