Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

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Virginian
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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Virginian » 10 Apr 2018 22:09

Эх, АА не вовремя продал...

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 26 May 2018 06:54

The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by metaller » 27 May 2018 03:31

worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
Я не хочу оплачивать ничьи аборты, велферы или детсады. Каждый должен сам принимать решения и нести за них ответственность.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 27 May 2018 04:26

metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
Да, поскольку подавляющее большинство держит деньги в mutual funds, "worst months" means market goes down or doesn't rise. Я однако недавно открыл несколько bullish spreads, до конца месяца.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by metaller » 27 May 2018 04:40

worldCitizen wrote:
27 May 2018 04:26
Да, поскольку подавляющее большинство держит деньги в mutual funds, "worst months" means market goes down or doesn't rise.
Ну это их проблемы ;)
Я не хочу оплачивать ничьи аборты, велферы или детсады. Каждый должен сам принимать решения и нести за них ответственность.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 27 May 2018 06:55

другое предостережение от Federal Reserve

TheStreet: What could the market impact be if we do get a trade war with China in the next 6-8 months?

Kashkari: It could be profound. A major correction could certainly be possible. Trade has been net positive for global economic growth, and if there was a full blown trade war between the U.S. and China U.S. economic growth would be hurt and Chinese economic growth would be hurt. Global growth would be hurt. And then there would be a shock to confidence and I think you would see equity markets responding to that shock to confidence.

It's clear we have to avoid that outcome. But, we also need to achieve a full and fair trade environment. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... e-14602766

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by ie » 27 May 2018 20:48

worldCitizen wrote:
27 May 2018 06:55
другое предостережение от Federal Reserve

TheStreet: What could the market impact be if we do get a trade war with China in the next 6-8 months?

Kashkari: It could be profound. A major correction could certainly be possible. Trade has been net positive for global economic growth, and if there was a full blown trade war between the U.S. and China U.S. economic growth would be hurt and Chinese economic growth would be hurt. Global growth would be hurt. And then there would be a shock to confidence and I think you would see equity markets responding to that shock to confidence.

It's clear we have to avoid that outcome. But, we also need to achieve a full and fair trade environment. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... e-14602766
в лучших традициях.... толи дождик толи снег....
интересно сколько им платят за такую простигосподи аналитеку?

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by VladG2 » 30 May 2018 05:10

metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
"Sell in May and go away!"

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Jerry » 05 Jun 2018 02:34

VladG2 wrote:
30 May 2018 05:10
metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
"Sell in May and go away!"
Только сегодня читал, что эта стратегия уже давно не работает
Premature to Sell in May
Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that May registers a stock market advance 57% of the time, while the average movement is a tiny decline of 0.06%, as reported in their Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets dated April 18. Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%, Merrill indicates. Moreover, they write that a weak May normally heralds a "more robust" June-August period. If there is any time to sell in summer, it normally would be in July-August, Merrill adds.

Not Applicable This Year
Based on new research, the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern, also called the Halloween Indicator or the Halloween Strategy, actually only holds true in the third year of a U.S. presidential term, asserts Mark Hulbert in his MarketWatch column. In the other three years, there is no statistically significant pattern, he says. Accordingly, he advises his readers that "there's nothing to bet on this year."

Analyzing data from 1897 onwards, Hulbert finds that the "winter" period in the third year of a presidential term averages an 11% gain, while the "summer" averages a slight loss. In years one, two and four, "winters" are up about 3%, while "summers" gain about 2%. Hulbert is noted for analyzing the track records of investment newsletters through his Hulbert Financial Digest (published 1980-2016) and his Hulbert Rating

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Dweller » 05 Jun 2018 05:37

Все ринулись продавать в Мае да так что рынок рванул вверх только 1 июня :)
Ну я сегодня продал, думаю опять просядет немножко, непонятно что там Трамп ещё учудит, ну и встреча с Кимом может сорваться тоже и тарифы по новой заиграют в заднице президента

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by VladG2 » 05 Jun 2018 05:54

Jerry wrote:
05 Jun 2018 02:34
VladG2 wrote:
30 May 2018 05:10
metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
"Sell in May and go away!"
Только сегодня читал, что эта стратегия уже давно не работает
Premature to Sell in May
Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that May registers a stock market advance 57% of the time, while the average movement is a tiny decline of 0.06%, as reported in their Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets dated April 18. Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%, Merrill indicates. Moreover, they write that a weak May normally heralds a "more robust" June-August period. If there is any time to sell in summer, it normally would be in July-August, Merrill adds.

Not Applicable This Year
Based on new research, the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern, also called the Halloween Indicator or the Halloween Strategy, actually only holds true in the third year of a U.S. presidential term, asserts Mark Hulbert in his MarketWatch column. In the other three years, there is no statistically significant pattern, he says. Accordingly, he advises his readers that "there's nothing to bet on this year."

Analyzing data from 1897 onwards, Hulbert finds that the "winter" period in the third year of a presidential term averages an 11% gain, while the "summer" averages a slight loss. In years one, two and four, "winters" are up about 3%, while "summers" gain about 2%. Hulbert is noted for analyzing the track records of investment newsletters through his Hulbert Financial Digest (published 1980-2016) and his Hulbert Rating
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