Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

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Virginian
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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Virginian » 10 Apr 2018 22:09

Эх, АА не вовремя продал...

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 26 May 2018 06:54

The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by metaller » 27 May 2018 03:31

worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
Я не хочу оплачивать ничьи аборты, велферы или детсады. Каждый должен сам принимать решения и нести за них ответственность.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 27 May 2018 04:26

metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
Да, поскольку подавляющее большинство держит деньги в mutual funds, "worst months" means market goes down or doesn't rise. Я однако недавно открыл несколько bullish spreads, до конца месяца.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by metaller » 27 May 2018 04:40

worldCitizen wrote:
27 May 2018 04:26
Да, поскольку подавляющее большинство держит деньги в mutual funds, "worst months" means market goes down or doesn't rise.
Ну это их проблемы ;)
Я не хочу оплачивать ничьи аборты, велферы или детсады. Каждый должен сам принимать решения и нести за них ответственность.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 27 May 2018 06:55

другое предостережение от Federal Reserve

TheStreet: What could the market impact be if we do get a trade war with China in the next 6-8 months?

Kashkari: It could be profound. A major correction could certainly be possible. Trade has been net positive for global economic growth, and if there was a full blown trade war between the U.S. and China U.S. economic growth would be hurt and Chinese economic growth would be hurt. Global growth would be hurt. And then there would be a shock to confidence and I think you would see equity markets responding to that shock to confidence.

It's clear we have to avoid that outcome. But, we also need to achieve a full and fair trade environment. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... e-14602766

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by ie » 27 May 2018 20:48

worldCitizen wrote:
27 May 2018 06:55
другое предостережение от Federal Reserve

TheStreet: What could the market impact be if we do get a trade war with China in the next 6-8 months?

Kashkari: It could be profound. A major correction could certainly be possible. Trade has been net positive for global economic growth, and if there was a full blown trade war between the U.S. and China U.S. economic growth would be hurt and Chinese economic growth would be hurt. Global growth would be hurt. And then there would be a shock to confidence and I think you would see equity markets responding to that shock to confidence.

It's clear we have to avoid that outcome. But, we also need to achieve a full and fair trade environment. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... e-14602766
в лучших традициях.... толи дождик толи снег....
интересно сколько им платят за такую простигосподи аналитеку?

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by VladG2 » 30 May 2018 05:10

metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
"Sell in May and go away!"

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Jerry » 05 Jun 2018 02:34

VladG2 wrote:
30 May 2018 05:10
metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
"Sell in May and go away!"
Только сегодня читал, что эта стратегия уже давно не работает
Premature to Sell in May
Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that May registers a stock market advance 57% of the time, while the average movement is a tiny decline of 0.06%, as reported in their Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets dated April 18. Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%, Merrill indicates. Moreover, they write that a weak May normally heralds a "more robust" June-August period. If there is any time to sell in summer, it normally would be in July-August, Merrill adds.

Not Applicable This Year
Based on new research, the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern, also called the Halloween Indicator or the Halloween Strategy, actually only holds true in the third year of a U.S. presidential term, asserts Mark Hulbert in his MarketWatch column. In the other three years, there is no statistically significant pattern, he says. Accordingly, he advises his readers that "there's nothing to bet on this year."

Analyzing data from 1897 onwards, Hulbert finds that the "winter" period in the third year of a presidential term averages an 11% gain, while the "summer" averages a slight loss. In years one, two and four, "winters" are up about 3%, while "summers" gain about 2%. Hulbert is noted for analyzing the track records of investment newsletters through his Hulbert Financial Digest (published 1980-2016) and his Hulbert Rating

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Dweller » 05 Jun 2018 05:37

Все ринулись продавать в Мае да так что рынок рванул вверх только 1 июня :)
Ну я сегодня продал, думаю опять просядет немножко, непонятно что там Трамп ещё учудит, ну и встреча с Кимом может сорваться тоже и тарифы по новой заиграют в заднице президента

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by VladG2 » 05 Jun 2018 05:54

Jerry wrote:
05 Jun 2018 02:34
VladG2 wrote:
30 May 2018 05:10
metaller wrote:
27 May 2018 03:31
worldCitizen wrote:
26 May 2018 06:54
The month of May is set to be a positive one for the U.S. stock market, bucking a seasonal tendency for weakness and potentially giving historically minded investors reason for optimism since June usually isn’t a good time for stocks either.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June ranks among the worst months of the year for major indexes. The results are especially poor in midterm election years, as is 2018..
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... 2018-05-25
Что значит "worst month" ? Sell short ! ;)
"Sell in May and go away!"
Только сегодня читал, что эта стратегия уже давно не работает
Premature to Sell in May
Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that May registers a stock market advance 57% of the time, while the average movement is a tiny decline of 0.06%, as reported in their Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets dated April 18. Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%, Merrill indicates. Moreover, they write that a weak May normally heralds a "more robust" June-August period. If there is any time to sell in summer, it normally would be in July-August, Merrill adds.

Not Applicable This Year
Based on new research, the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern, also called the Halloween Indicator or the Halloween Strategy, actually only holds true in the third year of a U.S. presidential term, asserts Mark Hulbert in his MarketWatch column. In the other three years, there is no statistically significant pattern, he says. Accordingly, he advises his readers that "there's nothing to bet on this year."

Analyzing data from 1897 onwards, Hulbert finds that the "winter" period in the third year of a presidential term averages an 11% gain, while the "summer" averages a slight loss. In years one, two and four, "winters" are up about 3%, while "summers" gain about 2%. Hulbert is noted for analyzing the track records of investment newsletters through his Hulbert Financial Digest (published 1980-2016) and his Hulbert Rating
Очевидно летом маркет слабый, люди уходят в отпуска. Для трейдеров закрыть рискованные позиции вполне имеет смысл, что бы не переживать.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 02 May 2019 02:24

Год спустя...

Expect a ‘minor correction’ of 5% before stocks march higher, famed bull says

Also supporting his thesis is that, after Feb 15, when 90% of S&P 500 components had surpassed their 50-day moving averages, the median stock in the index rose 5.1%, well above the historical norm. This level of market breadth is typically a contrarian indicator, signifying that stocks are overbought.

Finally, Dwyer argued that in the current earnings season — wherein 77% of the S&P 500 have beaten earnings estimates, while revenue growth is on pace to a “respectable 5%” — the fear of an earnings recession has evaporated, helping power the index’s 3.6% climb in April. “That leaves us with less skepticism ahead of a plethora of economic data that is likely to show further slowing.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expec ... o_homepage
Интересно будет посмотреть насколько предсказатели правы.
S&P 500
2,923.73: -22.10(-0.75%) Dow 30: 26,430.14 -162.77(-0.61%)
Nasdaq: 8,049.64

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by liamkin » 02 May 2019 19:41

Похихикал над постингом из Феда. Я в курсе что это за контора. Но сейчас все карты у Трампа. Про май и лето ничего не скажу. Но к выборам 2020 у Трампа только один курс по экономике (и стокам стало быть) - вверх. Иначе проиграет. Поэтому никакой торговой войны и лосс оф конфиденс не будет. Но стоки могут просесть, сезонно или еще из-за какого чиха. Кто ж их знает.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 07 May 2019 05:44


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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by metaller » 07 May 2019 18:30

Sell in May and go away ...
Я не хочу оплачивать ничьи аборты, велферы или детсады. Каждый должен сам принимать решения и нести за них ответственность.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by Dweller » 07 May 2019 21:36

SP500 на прошлой неделе побил прежние рекорды ненамного, и народ волнуется
В целом знак хороший, поэтому думаю подергается немного (2-3 недели) и опять начнет ползти вверх потихоньку, думаю коррекция вряд ли случится в ближайшие месяцы

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by rialtoma1 » 19 May 2019 23:56

я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by liamkin » 20 May 2019 19:24

rialtoma1 wrote:
19 May 2019 23:56
я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?
вот у Фоксконна акции уже обвалились (-17%) на фоне слабых продаж айФонов. Делайте что хотите. Джобс не вернется!

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 22 May 2019 22:04

rialtoma1 wrote:
19 May 2019 23:56
я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?
Почему такое желание возникло сейчас когда начался даунтренд? Надо ждать. Ситуация очень неуверенная. я бы скорее прикупил some puts. Or, you may do put credit spread. If price falls below your short strike, you have a chance to get the stock cheaper.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 23 May 2019 22:05

worldCitizen wrote:
22 May 2019 22:04
rialtoma1 wrote:
19 May 2019 23:56
я себе хочу чуть Apple стока купить, думаете, стоит?
Почему такое желание возникло сейчас когда начался даунтренд? Надо ждать. Ситуация очень неуверенная. я бы скорее прикупил some puts. Or, you may do put credit spread. If price falls below your short strike, you have a chance to get the stock cheaper.
Написал, и думаю может быть мне самому такую позицию открыть..

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 25 May 2019 19:53

Кстати, на таких стоках как Apple and Microsoft you can open a put or call diagonal spread for some credit. Редкая возможность, налетай кому не лень.
Last edited by worldCitizen on 25 May 2019 20:45, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Когда ожидать новый обвал рынка и что делать?

Post by worldCitizen » 25 May 2019 19:53

del

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